Better Credit Network
How to Handle your Job and Finances if there is a "Depression"
Brace yourself, America. What if the already terrible economy gets even worse? And not just a little bit worse, but a lot worse? Look at it this way: If you put a group of brainiac economists together in a room and told them to create a computer model of a Great Depression 2.0, the key ingredients would probably be a) plunging stock prices, b) collapsing home values, c) soaring unemployment, and d) a banking system on the verge of complete implosion.And do we have all those terrible factors in play today? Check, check, check and check. But there are also some big positives to counterbalance those huge negatives, such as a Federal Reserve that is lowering interest rates and printing money, as well as trillion-dollar government plans to stimulate the economy and keep people in their homes.
But things can get a lot nastier without reaching a total Great Depression
scenario where the economy shrinks by 25 percent and unemployment soars by 25 percent. So just how bad might the economy get? And if there is a mini-depression, what should you do about it? Your questions, our answers.
But things can get a lot nastier without reaching a total Great Depression
scenario where the economy shrinks by 25 percent and unemployment soars by 25 percent. So just how bad might the economy get? And if there is a mini-depression, what should you do about it? Your questions, our answers.
Give it to me straight - where's this economy heading?
Give it to me straight - where's this economy heading? There are some positive signs out there. Really. A highly respected economic model from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York predicts the recession, already 16 months old, will end this year. And White House economists are predicting a strong rebound over the next three years. But many private forecasters are far gloomier, predicting tepid growth going forward for several years and unemployment rising to at least 10 percent next year and staying elevated. This is the "long recession" scenario, similar to what happened in Japan after its real estate and banking crisis in the 1990s. Certainly, the battered stock market is giving few signs that investors see brighter days ahead. Research by Harvard University economist Robert Barro has found that big market drops raise the probability of an outright depression, defined as a GDP drop of 10 percent or more. As Barro concludes: "The stock-market crashes of 2008-09 in the United States and other countries provide ample reason for concern about depression."
How can I keep my job?
How can I keep my job? Workers are spending an average of 2.8 hours
each day worrying about job security, according to a recent survey. Here's a tip: worrying about it won't save it. This downturn is your cue is to stick your head out and become a somebody: lead a project, suggest an overhaul, work overtime, and develop relationships at work. If you're stuck in a job with little upward mobility, the best career move may be to head back to school while the opportunity cost is smallest. "It's time to take that hit," says Peter Morici, an economist at the University of Maryland. Just get a degree with obvious payback at a good institution: "Go to a school with brand loyalty among employers in the region where you want to find a job," Morici says. If you're out of work but not interested in going back to school, you may best survive the recession by taking a job at a lower pay grade. While on the hunt, consider offering to work part-time for free in an industry you're hoping to learn, suggests Katy Piotrowski, author of The Career Coward's Guide to Career Advancement. Free work is a boon to a struggling company, and
you'll only add to your skills, your resume, and your contacts.
each day worrying about job security, according to a recent survey. Here's a tip: worrying about it won't save it. This downturn is your cue is to stick your head out and become a somebody: lead a project, suggest an overhaul, work overtime, and develop relationships at work. If you're stuck in a job with little upward mobility, the best career move may be to head back to school while the opportunity cost is smallest. "It's time to take that hit," says Peter Morici, an economist at the University of Maryland. Just get a degree with obvious payback at a good institution: "Go to a school with brand loyalty among employers in the region where you want to find a job," Morici says. If you're out of work but not interested in going back to school, you may best survive the recession by taking a job at a lower pay grade. While on the hunt, consider offering to work part-time for free in an industry you're hoping to learn, suggests Katy Piotrowski, author of The Career Coward's Guide to Career Advancement. Free work is a boon to a struggling company, and
you'll only add to your skills, your resume, and your contacts.
My home has already lost a lot of value. Can it really fall much further?
My home has already lost a lot of value. Can it really fall much further?
Home prices at the national level have already plunged nearly 27 percent
from their 2006 peaks, and Richard Moody, the chief economist of Mission
Residential, expects values to drop another 10 to 15 percent before
bottoming out in the middle of 2010. Although he's not predicting it, if the
ongoing recession evolves into a full-blown depression, home prices could
fall an additional 25 to 30 percent on top of that, Moody says. That's because a sharply higher unemployment rate would pull many would-be buyers out of the market. At the same time, the disfunctional credit markets associated with a depression scenario could prevent many buyers with sufficient incomes and solid payment histories from obtaining mortgage financing. The result: "more significant drops in sales, prices and construction," Moody says. If so, more folks will be checking out the government's new foreclosure prevention plan, especially if your debt-to-income ratio is above 31 percent, and your mortgage is more than your home is worth
Home prices at the national level have already plunged nearly 27 percent
from their 2006 peaks, and Richard Moody, the chief economist of Mission
Residential, expects values to drop another 10 to 15 percent before
bottoming out in the middle of 2010. Although he's not predicting it, if the
ongoing recession evolves into a full-blown depression, home prices could
fall an additional 25 to 30 percent on top of that, Moody says. That's because a sharply higher unemployment rate would pull many would-be buyers out of the market. At the same time, the disfunctional credit markets associated with a depression scenario could prevent many buyers with sufficient incomes and solid payment histories from obtaining mortgage financing. The result: "more significant drops in sales, prices and construction," Moody says. If so, more folks will be checking out the government's new foreclosure prevention plan, especially if your debt-to-income ratio is above 31 percent, and your mortgage is more than your home is worth
What is someone in their 30s or 40s to do now that their 401(k) is a 201(k)?
The good news is that you still have decades of compounding growth ahead of you. The bad news is that a 20 percent or 30 percent blow to your portfolio means postponing nearer-term financial goals like buying a house or taking that around-the-world trip. Assuming you have a stocked emergency fund, keep funneling money into your 401(k). If you can, kick those contributions up a notch to take advantage of the market's fire-sale prices, says Russell Fox of Apex Wealth Management Group: "Generally someone who's 40 doesn't have the largest nest egg they'll ever have, so they're not in a situation where preservation is the top priority."
It's also soul-searching time. Find out why you set up your portfolio the way you did, taking into account risk and time horizon. Then, with Terminator-like resolve, stick to your guns (allocations). "Nervous investors should at least continue building the bond portion of their portfolio, then tiptoe back into equities," says Ronald Rogé, CEO of advisory firm R. W. Rogé & Co.
It's also soul-searching time. Find out why you set up your portfolio the way you did, taking into account risk and time horizon. Then, with Terminator-like resolve, stick to your guns (allocations). "Nervous investors should at least continue building the bond portion of their portfolio, then tiptoe back into equities," says Ronald Rogé, CEO of advisory firm R. W. Rogé & Co.
And what if you're in the retirement "red zone" and don't have decades to rebuild your portfolio?
The idea of working during the traditional retirement years isn't much fun, but it is practical. One of the best ways to give your retirement accounts a boost is to work another year or two. It will take the typical employee with 20 or more years on the job an extra 1.8 years working to recover recent market losses, according to calculations by Jack VanDerhei, research director of the Employee Benefit Research Institute.
Delaying claiming Social Security also produces higher payouts. Benefit
checks increase by approximately 7 to 8 percent for each year you delay
claiming between age 62 and 70. And because Social Security is calculated
based on your 35 highest earning years, each year you work in your 60s
(assuming you earn more now than you did in your 20s) will further boost
your checks in retirement. If you have already retired, it is more difficult to
recoup market losses. But at least seniors over age 70 1/2 will not be
required to take distributions from IRAs, 401(k)s, and 403(b)s in 2009,
which will allow retirees who don't need to tap their nest eggs an
opportunity to avoid selling low.
Delaying claiming Social Security also produces higher payouts. Benefit
checks increase by approximately 7 to 8 percent for each year you delay
claiming between age 62 and 70. And because Social Security is calculated
based on your 35 highest earning years, each year you work in your 60s
(assuming you earn more now than you did in your 20s) will further boost
your checks in retirement. If you have already retired, it is more difficult to
recoup market losses. But at least seniors over age 70 1/2 will not be
required to take distributions from IRAs, 401(k)s, and 403(b)s in 2009,
which will allow retirees who don't need to tap their nest eggs an
opportunity to avoid selling low.
See more on Making Money Ideas
OK, I'm going to totally hunker down and save like crazy. Any suggestions?
Consider extreme saving. Buying in bulk, making your own coffee, and
freezing leftovers are all ways to cut your grocery bill down to under $7 a day. But by taking saving to the next level, only buying sale items, staying away from brand loyalty, and using coupons for most purchases, you can actually save up to $1,500 a month. Ashley Nuzzo, creator of the Frugal Coupon Mom website, uses a three-ring binder to keep track of her coupons, and typically cuts her shopping bill by more than half. In December, for example, she spent $711 and brought home $2,200 worth of food - much of which she ended up donating.
freezing leftovers are all ways to cut your grocery bill down to under $7 a day. But by taking saving to the next level, only buying sale items, staying away from brand loyalty, and using coupons for most purchases, you can actually save up to $1,500 a month. Ashley Nuzzo, creator of the Frugal Coupon Mom website, uses a three-ring binder to keep track of her coupons, and typically cuts her shopping bill by more than half. In December, for example, she spent $711 and brought home $2,200 worth of food - much of which she ended up donating.
Reading about a depression is depressing. What can I do about that?
Hey, don't worry. Be happy. It's hard to be grateful for what you have when
your 401(k) lost most of its value and you have no savings, but it's
probably the best thing you can do for your mental health. Sonja
Lyubomirsky, professor of psychology at the University of
California-Riverside and author of The How of Happiness: A Scientific
Approach to Getting the Life You Want, suggests cultivating a sense of
appreciation through something like a gratitude journal, where you write
down three to five things for which you are thankful. If you lost your job,
think of other dreams that have come true, such as living in the city you
want or marrying the right partner. "It's not trivializing what's happening,
but trying not to focus on it all the time," says Lyubomirsky.
your 401(k) lost most of its value and you have no savings, but it's
probably the best thing you can do for your mental health. Sonja
Lyubomirsky, professor of psychology at the University of
California-Riverside and author of The How of Happiness: A Scientific
Approach to Getting the Life You Want, suggests cultivating a sense of
appreciation through something like a gratitude journal, where you write
down three to five things for which you are thankful. If you lost your job,
think of other dreams that have come true, such as living in the city you
want or marrying the right partner. "It's not trivializing what's happening,
but trying not to focus on it all the time," says Lyubomirsky.
Loans, Loans, What Loans?
In recent weeks, politicians have accused financial institutions of failing to
extend credit, despite taking in billions of dollars in taxpayers' funds during
the past few months.
But financial executives, including the CEOs of eight banks that testified
before Congress last week, have maintained that they are making new
loans and that the nation would face an even more severe credit crunch
had the government not thrown the industry a lifeline.
Still, it's hard to deny that credit is tighter. One reason, experts said, is that
many non-banking entities that provide credit, often referred to as the
so-called "shadow-banking system", have withdrawn massive amounts of
financing from the broader economy.
Money-market funds and insurance companies, for example, have typically
been big buyers of debt from companies looking to raise quick cash, notes
Rick Spitler, managing director at the New York City-based consultancy
Novantas, which focuses on financial institutions. That's no longer the case,
forcing corporations to look to banks for credit.
extend credit, despite taking in billions of dollars in taxpayers' funds during
the past few months.
But financial executives, including the CEOs of eight banks that testified
before Congress last week, have maintained that they are making new
loans and that the nation would face an even more severe credit crunch
had the government not thrown the industry a lifeline.
Still, it's hard to deny that credit is tighter. One reason, experts said, is that
many non-banking entities that provide credit, often referred to as the
so-called "shadow-banking system", have withdrawn massive amounts of
financing from the broader economy.
Money-market funds and insurance companies, for example, have typically
been big buyers of debt from companies looking to raise quick cash, notes
Rick Spitler, managing director at the New York City-based consultancy
Novantas, which focuses on financial institutions. That's no longer the case,
forcing corporations to look to banks for credit.
In addition, large institutional investors such as hedge funds and pension funds have shown little appetite for securities backed by mortgages, credit cards and commercial loans, hampering banks' ability to issue new loans.
"The shadow banking system hasn't recovered enough to pick up all the slack and bank capital isn't big enough to fill in for lack of supply and financing," said Spitler.
Some community banks and credit unions have attempted to fill the void left by some of their larger peers but cannot keep up with all the demand for loans, said Sherrill Shaffer, a professor of banking at the University of Wyoming in Laramie who served as the chief economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York during much of the 1980s.
Despite this, many banks are doing what they have always done during tough economic times - pulling back on all types of lending and trying to hold onto capital to help safeguard against further loan losses.
"The shadow banking system hasn't recovered enough to pick up all the slack and bank capital isn't big enough to fill in for lack of supply and financing," said Spitler.
Some community banks and credit unions have attempted to fill the void left by some of their larger peers but cannot keep up with all the demand for loans, said Sherrill Shaffer, a professor of banking at the University of Wyoming in Laramie who served as the chief economist for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York during much of the 1980s.
Despite this, many banks are doing what they have always done during tough economic times - pulling back on all types of lending and trying to hold onto capital to help safeguard against further loan losses.
Financial Aid for Homeowners?
President Barack Obama's new mortgage relief plan, launched Wednesday, March 4th, aims to help up to 9 million borrowers qualify for more affordable mortgages and stay in their homes.
Are you one of them?
Obama's "Making Home Affordable" program is designed to work with lenders to modify the loan terms for up to 4
million homeowners and to refinance up to 5 million homeowners into more affordable fixed-rate loans.
Here are some questions and answers about the latest round of aid for homeowners.
Q: How do I know if I qualify for the refinancing plan?
A: Only homeowners in good standing whose loans are held by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac qualify.
The property must be owner-occupied and the borrower must have enough income to make payments on the new
mortgage debt.
Borrowers can't owe more than 105 percent of their home's current value on their first mortgage. For example, if your home is worth $200,000, your first mortgage can't exceed $210,000. Borrowers with a second mortgage still can qualify as long as their first mortgage isn't more than 105 percent of their home's value.
Homeowners can't take cash out during the refinancing to pay other debt.
Borrowers have until June 2010 to apply for the program.
Q: How do I know if my mortgage is owned by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac?
A: Call your current lender or mortgage servicer. You can find the phone number on your monthly mortgage
statement or coupon book.
You can also contact Fannie Mae at 1-800-7FANNIE and Freddie Mac at 1-800-FREDDIE from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m.
EST. Or, go to http://www.fanniemae.com/homeaffordable and and fill out the online request forms.
Q: What borrowers qualify for the modification program?
A: You don't have to be behind on your mortgage payments to qualify. Delinquent borrowers and current borrowers who are at risk of imminent default are both eligible.
The program applies to mortgages made on Jan. 1 or earlier. The mortgage payment including taxes, insurance and homeowners association dues must exceed 31 percent of the borrowers' gross monthly income.
The property must be the homeowner's primary residence. It can't be investor-owned, vacant or condemned. Home loans for single-family properties that are worth more than $759,750 don't qualify.
The program is voluntary, relying on a $75 billion subsidy to encourage mortgage companies to participate. Lenders must agree to reduce the loan payments to 38 percent of a borrower's monthly income. After that, the government and lender split the cost of bringing the payment down to 31 percent.
Eligible borrowers will have to provide their most recent tax return and two pay stubs, as well as an "affidavit of
financial hardship" to qualify for the loan modification program. In the affidavit, applicants will have to cite the
reasons behind their financial woes, such as job loss or a drop in income. The government will then take steps to
verify the information.
Borrowers are only allowed to have their loans modified once. The program runs through Dec. 31, 2012.
Q: What if I'm in bankruptcy or in active litigation over my mortgage?
A: That doesn't necessarily keep you from qualifying for the modification program. And borrowers in active
litigation can modify their home loans without waiving their legal rights.
Q: What do I do to get help?
A: For the modification program, call your lender or mortgage servicer to see if you're eligible. For the refinance program, first find out if your mortgage is held by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Then contact your lender, mortgage servicer or a mortgage broker for refinancing options.
Q: How soon can I get help?
A: Both the modification and refinancing programs start immediately.
Q: What if I don't qualify for either program - is there any other way to get help with a ortgage?
A: Contact your lender or mortgage servicer regarding other modification programs or refinance options. Alternatively, contact a local housing counselor to negotiate with your lender or servicer, to help locate other local resources like rescue grants or loans, or to facilitate a short sale or deed-in-lieu of foreclosure if staying in the home isn't possible.
A short sale is where homeowners sell houses for less than the amount owed on them, and the lender then considers the debt paid off. A deed-in-lieu of foreclosure is where the borrower gives the property to the lender to satisfy a delinquent loan and to avoid foreclosure proceedings.
Local housing counselors can be found at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's Web
site at http://www.hud.gov/offices/hsg/sfh/hcc/hcs.cfm
Q: Do FHA, VA or USDA home loans qualify for modifications under Obama's plan?
A: Mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration, Veterans Administration or the U.S. Department of Agriculture are being modified under other programs. The Obama Administration and Congress are working on legislation that would allow modifications of these home loans consistent with the Making Home Affordable program.
Are you one of them?
Obama's "Making Home Affordable" program is designed to work with lenders to modify the loan terms for up to 4
million homeowners and to refinance up to 5 million homeowners into more affordable fixed-rate loans.
Here are some questions and answers about the latest round of aid for homeowners.
Q: How do I know if I qualify for the refinancing plan?
A: Only homeowners in good standing whose loans are held by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac qualify.
The property must be owner-occupied and the borrower must have enough income to make payments on the new
mortgage debt.
Borrowers can't owe more than 105 percent of their home's current value on their first mortgage. For example, if your home is worth $200,000, your first mortgage can't exceed $210,000. Borrowers with a second mortgage still can qualify as long as their first mortgage isn't more than 105 percent of their home's value.
Homeowners can't take cash out during the refinancing to pay other debt.
Borrowers have until June 2010 to apply for the program.
Q: How do I know if my mortgage is owned by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac?
A: Call your current lender or mortgage servicer. You can find the phone number on your monthly mortgage
statement or coupon book.
You can also contact Fannie Mae at 1-800-7FANNIE and Freddie Mac at 1-800-FREDDIE from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m.
EST. Or, go to http://www.fanniemae.com/homeaffordable and and fill out the online request forms.
Q: What borrowers qualify for the modification program?
A: You don't have to be behind on your mortgage payments to qualify. Delinquent borrowers and current borrowers who are at risk of imminent default are both eligible.
The program applies to mortgages made on Jan. 1 or earlier. The mortgage payment including taxes, insurance and homeowners association dues must exceed 31 percent of the borrowers' gross monthly income.
The property must be the homeowner's primary residence. It can't be investor-owned, vacant or condemned. Home loans for single-family properties that are worth more than $759,750 don't qualify.
The program is voluntary, relying on a $75 billion subsidy to encourage mortgage companies to participate. Lenders must agree to reduce the loan payments to 38 percent of a borrower's monthly income. After that, the government and lender split the cost of bringing the payment down to 31 percent.
Eligible borrowers will have to provide their most recent tax return and two pay stubs, as well as an "affidavit of
financial hardship" to qualify for the loan modification program. In the affidavit, applicants will have to cite the
reasons behind their financial woes, such as job loss or a drop in income. The government will then take steps to
verify the information.
Borrowers are only allowed to have their loans modified once. The program runs through Dec. 31, 2012.
Q: What if I'm in bankruptcy or in active litigation over my mortgage?
A: That doesn't necessarily keep you from qualifying for the modification program. And borrowers in active
litigation can modify their home loans without waiving their legal rights.
Q: What do I do to get help?
A: For the modification program, call your lender or mortgage servicer to see if you're eligible. For the refinance program, first find out if your mortgage is held by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Then contact your lender, mortgage servicer or a mortgage broker for refinancing options.
Q: How soon can I get help?
A: Both the modification and refinancing programs start immediately.
Q: What if I don't qualify for either program - is there any other way to get help with a ortgage?
A: Contact your lender or mortgage servicer regarding other modification programs or refinance options. Alternatively, contact a local housing counselor to negotiate with your lender or servicer, to help locate other local resources like rescue grants or loans, or to facilitate a short sale or deed-in-lieu of foreclosure if staying in the home isn't possible.
A short sale is where homeowners sell houses for less than the amount owed on them, and the lender then considers the debt paid off. A deed-in-lieu of foreclosure is where the borrower gives the property to the lender to satisfy a delinquent loan and to avoid foreclosure proceedings.
Local housing counselors can be found at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's Web
site at http://www.hud.gov/offices/hsg/sfh/hcc/hcs.cfm
Q: Do FHA, VA or USDA home loans qualify for modifications under Obama's plan?
A: Mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration, Veterans Administration or the U.S. Department of Agriculture are being modified under other programs. The Obama Administration and Congress are working on legislation that would allow modifications of these home loans consistent with the Making Home Affordable program.
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